Prediction For Monday's Championship Game

(It's about time Danny Green got some picture props on here)

After the UConn Huskies ruined my chances of winning just one NCAA Tournament Pool (damn you R.B.), it's time to focus on North Carolina vs. Michigan State. College basketball's title game is so different than the Super Bowl in that there's only 48 hours to hype up and discuss the game. I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing. I'm leaning towards good...because if I have to hear about the '79 title game between Magic and Bird one more time, I seriously might lose it.

How is a Big East team not in the Championship game? How did North Carolina lose to a team that lost to Harvard this season? How many times will Magic Johnson be shown in the stands during this game (I'm putting the over/under at 5.5)? Who knows. What I DO know is the winner of this year's NCAA title, and my prediction is as follows:

North Carolina over Michigan State

Reasons:

• If you think that there is a "home court" advantage for Michigan State playing in Detroit...you're clinically insane. There's gonna be a bunch of random middle-aged white guys at this game, the press, and some empty seats. Yeah...that bodes really well for Michigan State. (I'm going back to the well on this one!)
• Let's see...Ty Lawson, Danny Green, Lil Wayne Ellington, Deon Thompson, Tyler Hansbrough, Ed Davis, etc., etc., etc.
• Anna Lou NEEDS her first March Madness experience to end in a Tar Heel championship! This will give her the taste of victory early and set the tone for the rest of her Carolina Blue life!
  
• My goodness...it's already been 4 years since the North Carolina Tar Heels won a National Championship. Doesn't it seem like they're a little overdue at this point?
• A bunch of these UNC players came back for another year to win the NCAA title and cut down the nets. When decisions like this are made at the college level, karma is involved and good things happen. Just look at that Florida team a few years ago.
• TALENT TRUMPS HEART (AND HOME COURT)!!! TALENT TRUMPS HEART (AND HOME COURT)!!! TALENT TRUMPS HEART (AND HOME COURT)!!!
• Robert Morris University was tied at 30 with Michigan State more than halfway through the first half in their opening round game. Now I love my alma mater, but MSU won't be able to play their rope-a-dope style against the fun-and-gun style of UNC.
• If things like "destiny" and "the team is playing in their home state" are the best reasons to go with Michigan State...the Spartans are in serious trouble.
  
• North Carolina missed 15 free throws, got beat on the boards by five, lost the game in the paint by 10, second-chance points by three and even got beat on the fast break. And still beat Villanova by 14 points. Yeah...the Tar Heels are good.
• Tyler Hansbrough is finally going to cut down the nets...and Billy Packer is going to be crying himself to sleep tonight, wishing he could have been there.
• Going with UNC to win it all allows me to wish Liz and Emily the best of luck along with giving them props. If a certain someone kept getting props while Villanova kept winning, this is only fair. (P.S. Props to you John L. as well, if you're actually still reading this thing)
  
• Mega Star Ty Lawson deserves this! He's amazing!
• Roy Williams wore a Kansas Jayhawks button/pin during last year's title game. Kansas won the national championship. I figure this was good practice for Coach Williams. As long as he wears something related to UNC during this year's title game, his squad is a shoe-in to win it all.
• I can't defend a Big 10 team, I just can't. It does not make one bit of sense with regard to logic and reason.
• Seriously, North Carolina is really really good.
• Confidence in this pick: 9.5

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Predictions For Saturday's Final Four Games

(The Mega Star and the Destroyer of Dreams)

It feels like it's been long enough to enjoy college basketball again, hasn't it? I'm not going to jinx things...but if a certain two teams meet in the championship game (regardless of the eventual winner), I win one of my pools. You can say I'm invested in the results of today's games. Here are my predictions for tonight's Final Four games. I'm sorry I didn't post these earlier...so that others could jump in with their own predictions in the comments section. But a lot of people bitched and moaned about wanting a Pitt/Villanova post...then didn't read it, or didn't comment on it. I figure that we're all about square. Enjoy the games.

Connecticut over Michigan State

Reasons:

• As I've said before...if you think a little bump-in-the-road like a "recruiting scandal" is going to slow down Jim Calhoun and the UConn Huskies, you're dead wrong. These accusations are just pissing Coach Calhoun off! As if he and the Huskies needed proper motivation. He's got (way more) than 1.6 million reasons to win this game!
• When in doubt, go with the team that Pitt defeated twice this season when they were ranked #1 in the country. You better believe I'm going to keep cramming Pitt into this blog at every opportunity.
• I decided not to doubt the abilities of Tom Izzo and a Big 10 team last weekend when I chose MSU over Louisville. It paid off. But I can only give that kind of credit once per NCAA Tournament...and the Spartans used up that voucher in the Great Eight.
• If you think that there is a "home court" advantage for Michigan State playing in Detroit...you're clinically insane. There's gonna be a bunch of random middle-aged white guys at this game, the press, and some empty seats. Yeah...that bodes really well for Michigan State.
• Most of you have been reading this blog for awhile. Most of you have been watching the NCAA Tournament. Go ahead...name me TWO players from Michigan State. I dare you! It's ok...I'll wait.
  
• UConn is simply the better team. Everyone knows this. The reason that the press is hyping up Tom Izzo's success and the "home court" advantage for MSU is because they (and everyone else) knows that UConn should kick ass in this game. They are the favorite. They have the talent. They will have the victory.
• Confidence in this pick: 8.7

North Carolina over Villanova

Reasons:

• You don't defeat the Pitt Panthers on a last second shot, denying the best Pitt team in history their first trip to the Final Four, and expect to keep advancing. There are repercussions to your actions Villanova! The road ends here! F*** off!
• If you think the nation is done hearing about Tyler Hansbrough...you have another thing coming! We're not done seeing #50 on the court and being subjected to announcers detail his passion (whiteness) and talk about how he came back for his senior year to win a national championship. It almost makes me wish Billy Packer was doing these games, just to hear him gush with Hansbrough related man-love.
• Ty Lawson plays for North Carolina. Enough said.
• What makes the Final Four games different than the Great Eight games is preparation time. These teams have had 6-7 days to prepare for the Final Four (opposed to about 36 hours of prep time for the Great Eight). When given time to practice, game plan, and prepare...the better team will win 9 out of 10 times. Point UNC.
• If I pick against North Carolina, Liz and Emily might kill me. I value my life right now, so I'm going with the Tar Heels. (I also made a promise to root for UNC unless they were playing Pitt, so I'm going to be a man of my word and keep rooting for Lil Wayne Ellington and company)
  
• I guess this is a huge day for Matt. He was about 3 years old the last time Villanova reached the Final Four. Props to you Matt...your team made the Final Four. Enjoy it for all it's worth, because it's going to end very soon when North Carolina beats you.
• Confidence in this Pick: 9.3

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Predictions for Sunday's Great Eight Games

(POY Candidates: Tyler Hansbrough & Blake Griffin)

Better late than never with these picks. Not that there's anything else to discuss.

Michigan State over Louisville

Reasons:

• I'm tired of picking against the Big 10.
• If a certain Big East team seeded No. 1 can't reach the Final Four, I don't want all the other Big East teams seeded No. 1 to make it there.
• People LOVE talking about how good of a coach Tom Izzo is...this will give those people another opportunity to gush.
  
• The Spartans can slow down anybody with their sleep-inducing Big 10 style of play. Including Louisville. I think.
• I couldn't end up picking all the #1 seeds to reach the Final Four. That would just be boring.
• Confidence in this pick: 5.1

North Carolina over Oklahoma

Reasons:

• If North Carolina wins, this blog will be much more fun over the next week.
• I'll take Roy Williams over Jeff Capel in the coaching match-up please.
• Again...do you really think that sports fans are done hearing about Tyler Hansbrough? This is going to continue for another week folks. Not much you can do about it.
• In college sports...especially basketball...all-round skill ends up winning 9 out of 10 times. I'm sorry...but UNC just has the most talent of any team in this tournament. For instance, have I mentioned my love of Mega Star Ty Lawson lately?
  
• I don't want certain followers of this blog to kill me.
• Confidence in this pick: 8.8

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Predictions For Friday's Sweet Sixteen Games

(Who will prove to be "the man" in the UNC/Gonzaga game?)

I went 3 of 4 in my predictions for last night's sweet sixteen games...not to shabby. Let's crank out the rest of these things so people can post their predictions (and rants) by game time.

Louisville over Arizona

Reasons:

• I'll be taking Rick Pitino (and the occasional white suit) over Arizona interim head coach, Russ Pennell, any day of the week. Pitino knows this is one of the best teams he'll ever have. He's not going to screw it up by losing to a No. 12 seed.
• Staying with the Coach Pitino theme...he has an all-time record of 8-0 in Sweet Sixteen games.
• Much has been made about Arizona's "big three" of Nic Wise, Chase Budinger, and Jordan Hill...who could all end up being NBA draft picks this year. But this group of talent couldn't help them roll through Pac 10 conference play? A league where no other teams but Arizona reached the Sweet Sixteen? Please.
• Louisville has Terrence Williams, arguably the player that should have been co-Big East Player of the Year along with Dejuan Blair (and not Hasheem Thabeet). He does everything for the Cardinals (24 points and 15 rebounds in the Siena game).
• The Big East is proving it's dominance...already 3 teams in the Great Eight. If you think I'm picking a Pac 10 team over a Big East team, you haven't been reading this blog.
• Confidence in this pick: 9.5

Syracuse over Oklahoma

Reasons:

• At this point, I'm just choosing every Big East squad to reach the Great Eight. I'm not even settling for 4 Big East schools moving on to the next round. I want all 5!!!
• Jonny Flynn and Eric Devendorf should be able to manhandle the guards from Oklahoma. It then comes down to Paul Harris, Arinze Onuaku, and Rick Jackson slowing down Blake Griffin enough to throw him off his game.
• Oklahoma head coach Jeff Caple has done a good job this year, and he should be a good to great coach for years to come. But he's still relatively new to the scene, and I'm going with the savvy, experienced Jim Calhoun to out-coach and win in this match-up.
• I have visions of Syracuse's infamous 2-3 zone giving the Oklahoma guards and wing players fits. I don't really have any proof to back this up. But I can just picture it happening.
• Blake Griffin is an outstanding player. But Eric Devendorf and the Syracuse Orange need to stick around a little longer for the sake of this blog.
• Confidence in this pick: 6.4

Kansas over Michigan State

Reasons:

• How ironic is this? Bill Self and I were involved in an epic blood feud for most of last year's tournament (blog). Now I'm back picking the guy I don't trust at ALL to advance to the Great Eight? Peculiar.
• DON'T TRUST THE BIG TEN! DON'T TRUST THE BIG TEN! DON'T TRUST THE BIG TEN! DON'T TRUST THE BIG TEN!
  
• Tyler Hansbrough and Josh Heytvelt will be getting all of the big man attention in the UNC/Gonzaga game. But Cole Aldrich of Kansas might just be the best (white) big man in the country right now. He's coming off consecutive double-doubles in his first two NCAA tournament games, including 20 rebounds against Dayton.
• MSU head coach Tom Izzo has the track record to trust him in these kinds of situations. However, the Spartans SHOULD have lost to USC in the second round and were thoroughly outplayed for a half against a scrappy Robert Morris squad.
• Much like rock, paper scissors...when playing college basketball knockout: Big East > Big 12 > Horizon League > Big Ten.
• Confidence in this pick: 7.6

North Carolina over Gonzaga

Reasons:

• Ummm...I need North Carolina to keep winning (for at least two more rounds) to continue dominating my NCAA pools.
• Does anyone in America honestly (and I mean HONESTLY) think that Tyler Hansbrough's career is going to come to an end before the Final Four? Honestly? He's seemingly been around forever! It's not going to come to an end in a regional semi-final. My apologies to all of the UNC haters out there, but it's not going to happen.
• If Ty Lawson proved what he can do on a bad toe in the second half of that LSU game, Gonzaga should be terrified of what he can do with a few more days rest.
• I wish Gonzaga was in another region because it would be quite fun to root for this team to advance. They have a bunch of characters on this team including point guard Jeremy Pargo (who has also seemingly been around forever) and the man with the dreamy locks, Matt Bouldin.
• Coach Roy Williams against Coach Mark Few...a definite win...but also much closer than you'd originally think. But ACC vs. WCC...that's a blatant mismatch.
• Confidence in this pick: 9.9

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Conference Tournaments Starting on March 12th

The final four conference tournaments began yesterday. I'm honestly too exhausted from Robert Morris and 6 overtime games right now to give my usual 75%. Filling out 30 brackets was as daunting and draining this year as it was last year. But I do feel a sense of accomplishment. As I said last season, nobody else in the country is filling out 30 freaking conference tournament brackets. You're truly getting something unique here. There is something endearing about analyzing the potential of schools like Elon, Drake, The Citadel, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, and Rider. I've loved every second of it. Here are the winners, notable seeds, and props for the last four conference tournaments. As always, my predicted champions are in bold.

• Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) - North Carolina - I'm already regretting this pick, not because I don't like UNC, but because I didn't know Mega-Star Ty Lawson would be sitting out the ACC Tournament. Not to mention that North Carolina has nothing to gain from winning this tournament and may benefit from the Pitt route of laying down and focusing on the Big Dance (I'm still trying to convince myself that the Panther's Big East Tourney loss is inconsequential). A third UNC vs. Duke match-up would be nice, but a meeting in the NCAA Tournament would be much nicer. (The following is for you Matt) Pay attention to Greivis Vazquez of Maryland, he's the player who had a triple-double in Maryland's upset of UNC earlier this season. He's stated his intention to play in the NBA next year as Coach Gary Williams loses yet another star. Georgia Tech is a great first-round sleeper pick against Clemson as their basically playing on their home floor. Notable Seeds: #1 North Carolina (props to Liz), #2 Wake Forest, #3 Duke (props to Brian W.), #4 Florida State, #6 Boston College, #7 Maryland, #12 Georgia Tech

• Big 10 Conference - Michigan State - Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Seriously...this conference tournament is disgusting. Need I bring up Penn St. 38, Illinois 33 again? This league used to provide some really good college basketball. Now they bore people to death. I can't believe the Big 10 might seriously get 8 teams in the dance. Don't get me wrong, there are some worthy candidates here...but not 8. Iowa is in year 2 of a 5 year rebuilding plan. Give them time. Notable Seeds: #1 Michigan State, #2 Illinois, #3 Purdue, #4 Wisconsin, #5 Ohio State, #6 Penn State (props to Fleck, A.J., Bob, Ben S., Bradford, & Pat), #7 Michigan, #10 Iowa

• Southeastern Conference (SEC) - South Carolina - Here's another league that was really down this year. Florida fell hard and fast after their back-to-back championships. The Gators get to play on what amounts to their home floor here. I really thought the South Carolina Gamecocks had the best chance of anyone to win this tournament, but they lost earlier today to Mississippi State. So nuts to that. The most intrigue left is whether or not Bruce Pearl will break out the orange creamsicle suit at some point. One can hope. Notable Seeds: #1w LSU, #1e Tennessee, #2w Auburn, #2e South Carolina, #3w Mississippi State, #3e Florida, #4e Kentucky

• Southland Conference - Stephen F. Austin - I chose Stephen F. Austin last year as the #1 seed to win this conference. They failed me. I'm picking them again in the hopes of redemption for both them and me. This is the 30th and FINAL conference tournament bracket that I had to fill out. It feels like graduation. I'm finally done. Let's PLEASE move on. Notable seeds: #1 Stephen F. Austin, #2 Nicholls State, #3 Sam Houston State, #4 Texas A&M Corpus Christi, #6 UT San Antonio, #7 Texas State

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